A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
